Free trial vs hard paywall calculator
Enter what a hard paywall converts and what a free trial would start and convert to see which earns more per paywall view, the trial-to-paid rate where they match, and how big a test you need.
The free trial earns 16.7% more per paywall view
Over 24 months: 3.50% of views end up paying with the trial against 3.00% with the hard paywall. It breaks even at 30.0% of trials converting; you entered 35.0%.
Per 1,000 paywall views over 24 months
| Paying subscribers | Payments each | Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard paywall | 30.0 | 1.40 | $1,428 |
| Free trial | 35.0 | 1.40 | $1,666 |
Payments each is the expected number of payments per subscriber inside the time frame, after renewals. Revenue is after the store fee. A trial starts paying 7 days later, so it can fit fewer payments.
Free trial revenue by trial-to-paid rate
| Trials that pay | Views that pay | Per 1,000 views | vs hard paywall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 1.50% | $713.82 | -50.0% |
| 20% | 2.00% | $951.76 | -33.3% |
| 25% | 2.50% | $1,190 | -16.7% |
| 30.0% (break-even) | 3.00% | $1,428 | 0.0% |
| 35.0% (your number) | 3.50% | $1,666 | +16.7% |
| 40% | 4.00% | $1,904 | +33.3% |
| 50% | 5.00% | $2,379 | +66.7% |
| 60% | 6.00% | $2,855 | +100.0% |
Hard paywall: $1,428 per 1,000 paywall views. Trial start rate held at 10.0%.
Testing it
A 50/50 test of trial against hard paywall needs about 19,743 paywall views per variant, about 40 days at 1,200 views a day including the last trials ending to tell 3.50% paying from 3.00%, at 95% confidence and 80% power. Read the result only once every trial in the test has ended.
Assumes one price for both, trial converters pay when the trial ends, and a constant renewal rate. Refunds and trial cancellations after a charge are left out. How this works
Questions people ask
Is a free trial better than a hard paywall?
It depends on two numbers: how many more people start a trial than buy outright, and how many trials convert. With equal renewals, the trial wins when trial starts times trial-to-paid is higher than the hard paywall's conversion. If 3% of views buy outright and 10% start a trial, the trial needs more than 30% of trials to convert.
What trial-to-paid rate do I need?
The calculator shows it as the break-even. It is the hard paywall conversion divided by the trial start rate, adjusted for any difference in renewals and for payments the trial delay pushes out of the time frame.
Why does the trial length matter?
A trial delays the first payment. Over a short time frame that can cost a whole payment, especially on weekly and monthly plans. It also makes a test longer, because you can only read it once the last trials have ended.
Do trial users renew less?
Sometimes. People who pay after a trial have already used the app, which can go either way. Enter a separate renewal rate if you have data; otherwise keep both equal.
How do I test a trial against a hard paywall?
Split new users 50/50, wait until every trial in the test has ended, and compare revenue per paywall view, not trial starts. The paywall A/B test calculator reads the result.
Get your test results in your inbox every Monday
We're building a weekly report for subscription apps. You upload your RevenueCat Experiments export, and each Monday you get, for every running paywall test:
- The chance the new paywall earns more per view, with a likely range
- A warning when the traffic split is off and the result can't be trusted
- About how many more days the test needs
- One concrete test to run next
RevenueCat already emails each variant's conversion and realized LTV against control. This report tells you whether the difference is real and what to do about it.
Planned price: $49 a month, or $99 for teams.