The free trial earns 16.7% more per paywall view
Over 24 months: 3.50% of views end up paying with the trial against 3.00% with the hard paywall. It breaks even at 30.0% of trials converting; you entered 35.0%.
Per 1,000 paywall views over 24 months
| Paying subscribers | Payments each | Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard paywall | 30.0 | 1.40 | $1,428 |
| Free trial | 35.0 | 1.40 | $1,666 |
Payments each is the expected number of payments per subscriber inside the time frame, after renewals. Revenue is after the store fee. A trial starts paying 7 days later, so it can fit fewer payments.
Free trial revenue by trial-to-paid rate
| Trials that pay | Views that pay | Per 1,000 views | vs hard paywall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 1.50% | $713.82 | -50.0% |
| 20% | 2.00% | $951.76 | -33.3% |
| 25% | 2.50% | $1,190 | -16.7% |
| 30.0% (break-even) | 3.00% | $1,428 | 0.0% |
| 35.0% (your number) | 3.50% | $1,666 | +16.7% |
| 40% | 4.00% | $1,904 | +33.3% |
| 50% | 5.00% | $2,379 | +66.7% |
| 60% | 6.00% | $2,855 | +100.0% |
Hard paywall: $1,428 per 1,000 paywall views. Trial start rate held at 10.0%.
Testing it
A 50/50 test of trial against hard paywall needs about 19,743 paywall views per variant, about 40 days at 1,200 views a day including the last trials ending to tell 3.50% paying from 3.00%, at 95% confidence and 80% power. Read the result only once every trial in the test has ended.
Assumes one price for both, trial converters pay when the trial ends, and a constant renewal rate. Refunds and trial cancellations after a charge are left out. How this works