Ship Yearly plan first
Yearly plan first has a 96% chance of earning the most per view. If it is not the best, you would lose about $0.0011 per view on average.
- Current paywall converts more people, but Yearly plan first earns more per view. Buyers are choosing different plans, so judge the test on revenue, not conversion.
| Variant | Revenue per view | Chance it earns most | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current paywall | $0.613Control$0.524 to $0.717 | 4% | 3.60%303 of 8,420 |
| Yearly plan first | $0.749+21.8% vs control$0.643 to $0.869 | 96% | 2.99%251 of 8,388 |
How much more each variant earns per view
Each bar is a range of possible lifts, sized by how often it came up in 20,000 simulations. Bars left of 0% mean the variant earns less than Current paywall.
Revenue uses prices after the 15% store fee. Bayesian model with a flat prior on conversion. Frequentist checks for reference: Yearly plan first: p = 0.074 on revenue, 0.028 on conversion. Traffic split check passed (p = 0.805). How this works